Sigh.

[Updated: Husband and Chuck both say that the METAR contains the same unreliable wind info as what AWOS reports.]

I had planned to fly at 8 am to get in some solo time since 388 will be busy from 10 am today through my lesson at 2 pm on Monday.

Unfortunately, the winds are not favorable. They're only 8-10 kts, but it's all crosswind and I'm only endorsed for a 5-kt crosswind when flying solo. I've left a few emails for Chuck (it's too early to call him) to see if we can get in some crosswind landing practice, but I'm not optimistic that it'll work out.

:(

The other thing that totally sucks is the uncertainty. Not only about this last minute "Will I fly this morning?" uncertainty, but the NOTAM for JGG says the AWOS-reported winds are unreliable. Does that also mean the METAR-reported winds are unreliable? Do they come from the same source? Beyond that, the two nearest TAF sites are KFAF (Fort Eustis, ~8nm) and KPHF (Newport News, ~12nm). Fort Eustis is close enough that when departing 13, avoiding their Class D airspace is a quickly approaching concern. However, their METARs are frequently nothing like what JGG is showing, but sometimes they are. PHF's METARs are usually fairly close, but with slightly higher wind speeds (but if JGG's are unreliable, who really knows?). One example I noted earlier this week was when JGG and PHF said it was a clear and fairly calm day, which matched my observation out the window, but FAF said it was overcast at something low like 1200' with 15-kt winds. So what should I use for forecasts? Husband uses PHF with a caveat that the winds will probably be different. I'll follow his lead unless new information convinces us we should do otherwise.